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For those interested in the search engine wars, particularly Bing vs. Google, then you might be interested in a recent usability study done by Catalyst in New York. While they used a statistically insignificant sample size of only 12 people (all who had been Google users beforehand), they did come out with some interesting anecdotal data.

First of all, 4 out of 12 actually said they preferred Bing, with the remaining 8 preferring Google, but apparently because Google was the search engine they were familiar with. Second of all, Bing was actually preferred on most metrics, with Google winning out simply because of familiarity. In terms of search relevance the two engines appear to have tied. Catalyst also studied which parts of the page caught users' attention and found that Bing appeared to get much more eye-time right where one would presumably want it, over the top search results.

Footnoted found some juicy details on the Schering Plough (SGP) and Merck (MRK) deal. Turns out there was another suitor, the mysterious "Company X". To me previous competition adds to the chances that its a done deal. While this isn't an all cash deal, there is still a deal discount which can be decently captured via hedging.

"During the January 9, 2009 Schering-Plough board update, Schering-Plough’s financial advisors noted that another company (“Company X”) potentially had the financial and operational capacity to complete a strategic transaction with Schering-Plough and that, other than Merck, Company X was, in their view, the entity most likely to be interested in and capable of completing a strategic transaction with Schering-Plough. The board determined that it would be appropriate to better understand Company X’s interest before making a determination as to Schering-Plough’s response to the approach by Merck. Accordingly, the board asked Mr. Hassan to contact Company X to understand the interest of Company X and to assess any such interest in light of the approach by Merck."

There’s a lot more about the back and forth between Company X and Schering-Plough that went on during January 2009. Indeed, pages 51-53 of the filing are chock-full of details. On Feb. 5, the negotiations fell apart when the CEO of Company X called Schering-Plough CEO Fred Hassan to say that the company “had determined not to proceed with a proposal at that time.”

Footnoted hypothesizes that Company X might have been Pfizer (PFE) actually, but then perhaps backed away and went with its Wyeth (WYE) acquisition. (Another interesting one to watch) It's too bad the world doesn't have more Footnoted.org's, we could use a 1,000 sites like this.

While currently estimating a successful close of the Sun (JAVA) and Oracle (ORCL) deal by end-August, I noticed that WSJ's Dealogic listed 2Q09 as an expected date for the deal. If by this they mean Oracle makes the purchase by say end-July (we add a month to the end of 2Q09), then Sun at $9.15 would imply a 14.7% IRR. Not bad for a deal which looks pretty solid. If indeed the deal drags on beyond that, then the IRR's fall from there, though would still be near 9% if in the end we have an end-September close. Transaction costs would need to be considered as well.

At the very least, both deal completion expectations and small Sun share price movements will be very much worth watching in the weeks ahead. For example, if Sun shares drop to $9 on market volatility, then the end September IRR below would rise to 13%. On the other hand, an extended regulatory inquiry could delay things substantially and drag down potential returns, though it seems like Oracle-Sun doesn't generate the outright anti-trust risk that Oracle-IBM might have so at this stage I don't see regulatory issues as a potential deal breaker for Sun-Oracle. Updated Sun Arb metrics below. As a voluntary disclosure, I do not directly own any Sun or Oracle shares, just observing for now.